Expendable launch vehicle market coming down to earth

Hit by a slump in the commercial communications satellite market, demand for expendable launch vehicles (ELVs) is expected to slowly fall over the next 10 years, according to a new study from Forecast International."The World Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles" notes that about 790 rockets will roll off production lines through 2011 to launch a variety of satellites - commercial satellites, military spacecraft and science satellites - into orbit.Production is expected to peak next year at 88 units, declining each year thereafter to 65 rockets in 2011.

Last year 53 launches took place world-wide, down about 35 percent from the 81 launches in 2000. This year some 74 missions involving ELVs are expected, with the lion's share of launches involving the placement of very large commercial communications satellites into geostationary Earth orbit.All told, more than 20 satcoms are earmarked for launch this year, most as single payloads aboard vehicles such as Ariane 5, Proton, Atlas IIAS/Atlas IIIB/Atlas V, Sea Launch, andDelta IV.Despite the slight upturn in launches this year, there are still more rockets than payloads.

"Surprisingly, despite a glut of ELVs on the market today, new systems are in development," said Ray Peterson, Forecast International space systems analyst and author of the report.Granted, some of these, for example the Atlas V and Delta IV, will replace earlier versions in the same series.On the other hand, entirely new boosters, such as Europe's Vega and Japan's J-2, will begin operations later in the decade and it remains unclear if these and other entrants will attract a fair share of payloads.

National pride, rather than economics, appears to be playing a major role in the development of some new boosters, as the communications satellite market, especially for payloads consigned to low-Earth orbit (LEO), has dramatically shrunk in recent years.Simultaneously, US programmes like Lockheed Martin's Athena and Orbital Sciences Corporation's Taurus have languished for lack of customers.

As bad as things appear right now, the remainder of the decade may bring some relief, however slight.Many of the satellites currently in GEO will need replacing later in the decade, new commercial communications programmes are planned, and several new medium-Earth and low-Earth-orbit communications programmes involving more than a hundred satellites could move to the production and deployment stage.In addition, military programmes, remote sensing systems, and science spacecraft will also require the services of hundreds of ELVs over the next 10 years.

REF XQQAS XQQEE XQQMA XQQPC XQQSE