Washington tries to "play the Russia Card"
13 June 2001
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During the height of the Cold War, Western armchair strategists loved to talk about "playing the China card". The idea was that by getting closer to Beijing, the US could increase pressure on Moscow. How times have changed. Now there is more than a hint in the air of Washington seeking to "play the Russia card" in its burgeoning contest with China.
On the face of it, this would be a curious development for a Republican administration full of conservatives, and there will be some who would find any warming of ties with Russia hard to take.
But the likely pragmatism of the Bush administration was well advertised in his inaugural address when President Bush spoke about America "shaping a balance of power that favours freedom". And clearly the balance of power that the Bush administration is most interested in shaping is one that contains China's growing power.
Russia has been a close ally of China since the end of the Cold War, railing with Beijing against the iniquities of a world order dominated by the United States. It has opposed Nato's intervention in Yugoslavia, America's bombing of Iraq, and, above all, America's plans to dispose of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty and develop a missile-defence system. It has also sold considerable amounts of arms to China.
But, for a number of reasons, a change of tack by Moscow is not such an extraordinary prospect as it might seem. First of all, the US appears prepared to offer Russia substantial benefits for acquiescing in its missile-defence plans. It has been reported that US Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Stephen Hadley, the deputy US national security adviser, broached the subject with Russian officials during talks in Moscow last month.
According to a senior US official, Wolfowitz and Hadley made an offer including possible joint missile-defence exercises, the provision of money to upgrade Russia's ageing radar system, and the sharing of early warning data. There has also been talk of the US buying Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles.
Secondly, Russia's natural allies in Asia would seem to be India and Japan rather than China. There are many in Moscow who see China as posing a long-term threat to the Russian Far East and to Russian influence in Central Asia. India, on the other hand, poses no challenge to Russia in Central Asia while providing a useful ally in the fight against Islamic radicalism, and Japan could provide the answer to Russia's underdeveloped Far East if only the' dispute over the Kurile Islands can be resolved.
Earlier this month, Russian and Japanese officials were talking about boosting bilateral trade from the current level of just $5.2bn in 2000 to $100bn in a decade's time, with Russian officials saying that Russia could, in particular, help ease Japan's dependence on energy from the Middle East.
We are not saying here that a sudden and obvious shift in Russian foreign policy away from China and towards the US is imminent. What we are saying, though, is that the US might have good reasons for hoping that such a shift is both desirable and possible. To many in Washington the idea of developing closer ties with Russia, as well as with India, to go with the US's already close ties with Japan will have great appeal as it faces the growing power of China.
Some indication of how serious Washington is about moving in this direction, and how responsive Moscow might be to America's blandishments, will come from the first summit meeting between presidents Bush and Putin on 16 June in the Slovenian capital Ljubljana.
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