22 January 2002

By Ben Moores, Industry Analyst (Europe) Frost & Sullivan

At the start of the Afghan conflict I wrote a short article on my initial perceptions on the impact that new technology was having on the outcome of the conflict and how this related to the lack of European long range ISR platforms. Now that the first stage of the 'war against terror' is over there are some clear lessons emerging from various military and academic circles that European industry and Procurement agencies will doubtlessly be listening closely to.

I previously stated that display of ISR platforms in the Afghan conflict demonstrated the significant gap between American and European capability. However, what has emerged since the end of the conflict is the impact of networking between various American platforms. The result of this was that the Afghanistan conflict saw many 'firsts'; it was the first time an offensively armed UAV was utilised in conjunction with ground troops, the first time that UAV's and piloted strike craft operated together and the first time we saw 'persistence over the battlefield' through jointly fused sensors.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that the 'prophets' of network centric warfare; John Gartska, Fred Stein and their champion Vice Admiral Cebrowski have correctly predicted the future of warfare in the same way that Vauban, Gribeauvel and Guderian did in a previous ages. Information superiority through the application of network centric warfare allowed US forces to lower the sensor to shooter loop time considerably which had a marked effect on the way the war was fought. Already there are proponents of the concept that ground forces will increasingly become the eyes and ears for military strike platforms in those hard to reach places.

However if one looks a little closer it becomes apparent just how far US forces were in having a true network centric capability. Most the sensor fusion integration progression was carried out in the field, or at home as the campaign progressed. Importantly, much of the data that was transferred was through satellite networks as opposed to true network capability. Many aircraft were reliant on the E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System for satellite communications as they lacked on board capability. The Taliban did not have anti-satellite capability but future opponents may well do and could impair the weak link in the chain.

The second element that had a profound impact on the battlefield was the increased capability of sensors and ISR. The ability to spot, and react in time to shoot, Taliban troops as they moved around the country paralysed support and logistic traffic and thus the front lines became so brittle that they collapsed/ changed sides as soon as they were nudged.

As the Afghan dust settles future procurement patterns begin to emerge and the big question is what does this mean for the defence industry? If one believes that NATO / European forces are going to continue to fight forces that seek to evade air power by dispersion or concealing themselves then research and development is most likely to be concentrated in the areas of Sensors, C2 and Communications.

There is going to be a marked increase in investments in datalinks and communication networks as militaries strive to bond sensors and strike platforms together. The combat multiplier effect of advanced communications has shown its worth in combat. To exchange sensor data in real or near real time for data fusion is going to require significant leaps in technology and lateral thinking in order to build systems that can keep up with the demand for ever increasing quantities of data.

Whilst at the same time the HD/LD (High demand/ Low density) ISR platforms that form the 'hubs' in information networks are in significant shortage. The solution will not be in a single system, too expensive, too risky; the real challenge will continue to grow in the communications field as the military tries to fuse the various data sources.

Advances in both space based and unmanned platform technologies have developed to the extent that 'persistence over the battlefield' is now possible. A strategy that is dependent on 'persistence over the battlefield' will require larger numbers and greater capability in platforms that are capable of sustained positioning over the area of engagement. Ground moving target indicator (GMTI) sensors have demonstrated their worth again and the impact of this is likely to accelerate investment in the European program equivalent of Joint STARS and ASTOR, called SOSTAR.

We can also expect further development into the C2, Communication systems and Optics for UAV's. UAV's played a very significant part at an operational level for the first time in a conflict. No longer constrained to minor tactical observation tasks technology has allowed them to play a number of roles with significant impact and improvement in overall warfighting capability. UAV's have proved themselves on the battlefield, the problem now is how to maximise the systems on the platforms we have or are currently under development.

Advances in both space based and unmanned platform technologies have developed to the extent that 'persistence over the battlefield' is now possible. A strategy that is dependent on 'persistence over the battlefield' will require larger numbers and greater capability in platforms that are capable of sustained positioning over the area of engagement.

For the various European military arms this is yet another round of challenges. It is simply imperative now more than ever for political squabbling and petty nationalism to be put aside in order to create a pool of inter-European resources that can be called upon in order to project power and stop the trend of Europe becoming a political giant and military dwarf.

For the European Defence industry it's a great opportunity to harness the significant technological base that Europe has in communications and sensors and adapt this technology for military purposes. Those companies that can continue to focus their efforts in these areas can expect the next five to ten years to be rich ones.

There have been signs already of European companies preparing themselves for this and they have made the correct move. Joint ventures across Europe or with America could provide the solutions to the problems that NATO will continue to face as the dawn of the network centric age continues to break upon us.