Boeing projects $4.7 trillion market for new aircraft and services

The Boeing Company has released its 2001 Current Market Outlook (CMO) at the Paris Air Show, noting a forecast of a $4.7 trillion market for new commercial aircraft and aviation services over the next 20 years.

Boeing estimates the world fleet will double to almost 33,000 jets by 2020, comprising almost 18,400 new aircraft for market growth; 5,100 aircraft for replacement; and the more than 9,500 aircraft that currently are flying. The mix of current and new aircraft is expected accommodate a forecast of 4.7 percent growth in world air travel, plus 6.4 percent growth in the cargo segment. Regional growth varies between 3.1 and 7.7 percent, with Latin America expected to be the fastest growing market.

Boeing projects airlines will invest $1.7 trillion in new commercial aircraft, which equates to 23,500 aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years. Of that total:

• 18 percent (or 4,200 deliveries) will be for smaller regional jets (below 90 seats)
• 56 percent (or 13,300 deliveries) will be for larger regional jets and single-aisle aircraft
• 21 percent (or 4,900 deliveries) will be for intermediate-size aircraft
• 5 percent (or about 1,100 deliveries) will be for 747 and larger size aircraft.

"The shift from a regulated to a liberalised market has increased competition among airlines and is forcing them to operate at much higher levels of efficiency to remain profitable," said Randy Baseler, Boeing Commercial Airplanes Group vice president - Marketing. "And passenger preference for more frequent, nonstop flights with shorter trip times, will continue to drive market evolution and airline strategies. After all, air travel is all about saving time."

"We see market fragmentation - or 'point-to-point' operations -continuing world-wide, which means airlines will rely more and more on smaller aircraft to meet passenger demand for safe, reliable service; nonstop flights when and to where they want to go; and low fares in comfortable surroundings," Baseler said.

Baseler's statements reflects the difference in opinion between the two main commercial jet producers. In contrast to Boeing's view of shorter more direct flights, Airbus forecasts that traffic loads will continue to rise, forcing airlines to look to larger aircraft to link continental hubs.

The 2001 forecast does not include the company's recently announced "sonic cruiser" concept, although company executives have said they see a market for several thousand of the aircraft that will change the way the world flies by adding a new dimension of speed. The company will amend the CMO once a final configuration has been determined and further engineering work is completed.

"We expect the sonic cruiser will accelerate fragmentation and segmentation through speed, which combined with the aircraft's range, will help our customers compete even more effectively in medium- to long-range markets," Baseler said. "But until enough of them have been introduced into the world-wide fleet, it will be difficult to understand the full benefits of this revolutionary aircraft."

Increasing pressure on the airlines to become more efficient led Boeing to announce that it would enter the substantial and lucrative aviation support services market. Boeing estimates that the commercial aviation support services market will be worth more than $3 trillion over the next 20 years, with annual revenues considerably more than that for the new aircraft market.

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