Ten-year combat aircraft market in growth cycle

In a new analysis and forecast, 'The World Market for Fighter/Attack/Jet Trainer Aircraft - 2003-2012', released at the Paris Air Show Forecast International/DMS projects deliveries of about 4,350 aircraft worth $170 billion, with production and revenues both rising as the decade progresses.

Most of the world's major air arms are into re-equipment cycles with such types as the F/A-18E/F, F-22, Typhoon, and Rafale, with the ambitious F-35 Joint Strike Fighter moving through the development phase. Assuming that its cost and performance targets can be met, the F-35 may well equal or better the international sales success of Lockheed's earlier F-16 series. The US and UK plan to procure nearly 3,000 F-35s and so far about a dozen other nations are participating in its development. By the end of this decade a number of these countries will undoubtedly have come aboard if the programme proceeds fairly smoothly.

The US Air Force's top funding priority, the Lockheed Martin/Boeing F/A-22, is viewed by its critics as a gold-plated relic of the Cold War and the fact that it is significantly over budget and behind schedule does not bode well for its future. However, according to Forecast International aviation analyst Bill Dane, "the Air Force's so-called Fighter Mafia will protect this programme at virtually any cost, including cutbacks in its planned F-35 procurements." The manufacturer and the service must make good on their claims that the programme is moving back on track.

Even as the new models move into the metal-cutting stage, the manufacturers are beating the bushes for customers for their current models. The ubiquitous Lockheed Martin F-16 and Dassault's Mirage 2000 are two highly visible examples of this trend.

Across the Atlantic Eurofighter has intensified the international sales campaign for its new Typhoon, while France's Dassault is still trying to line up its first Rafale export sale. The European industry may find it tough going up against the F-35 when that model becomes available.

Fighter aircraft production in Russia is undergoing a revival of sorts, primarily on the strength of large Indian and Chinese orders for the Sukhoi 27/30 series.MiG and Yakovlev are teamed with Western firms on their respective advanced trainer candidates, with Italy's Aermacchi now promoting an M-346 variant of the Yak design to Western European sales prospects.Russia's own trainer requirement has apparently been shelved, although very modest orders have been placed with both manufacturers.

Annual fighter aircraft deliveries will be on the rise during the second half of the ten-year forecast period as the new re-equipment cycle gathers steam. Boeing will lead the market in terms of sales revenues, trailed respectively by the Eurofighter consortium, Lockheed Martin, the Lockheed-Boeing F-22 team, Dassault, and a resurging Sukhoi.

Forecast International/DMS Inc., provide Market Intelligence and Analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.

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