Boeing projects $5.2 trillion market for new aircraft and services

Boeing released its 2003 Current Market Outlook at the Paris Air Show today, noting a forecast of a $5.2 trillion market for new commercial aircraft and aviation services over the next 20 years.

Boeing estimates the world fleet will more than double to 34,000 jets by 2022, consisting of approximately 18,400 aircraft for market growth; 5,900 aircraft for replacement; and 9,700 aircraft currently flying. The mix of current and new aircraft is expected to accommodate a forecast of 5.1% per year growth in world air travel. Regional growth varies between 4 and 7.3%, with Latin America expected to be the fastest-growing region.

Boeing projects that airlines will invest $1.9 trillion in new commercial aircraft, which equates to 24,275 aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years. Of that total:

• 18% (or 4,300 deliveries) will be for smaller regional jets (below 90 seats).

• 56% (or 13,645 deliveries) will be for larger regional jets and single-aisle aircraft.

• 22% (or 5,440 deliveries) will be for intermediate-size aircraft.

• 4% (or about 890 deliveries) will be for 747 and larger size aircraft.

  The freighter fleet will double over the next 20 years from 1,752 to 3,501 aircraft. Freighters, as a share of the total aircraft fleet, will fall from 11 to 10% due to an increase in the size of the average freighter. Taking 1,227 retirements into account, nearly 3,000 aircraft will be added to the freighter fleet by 2022.

  Boeing estimates that the commercial aviation support services market will be worth about $3.3 trillion over the next 20 years, with annual revenues considerably more than that for the new aircraft market.

  Boeing's market review reflects the company's belief that passengers want more point-to-point capability, a view not shared by its main competitor Airbus which sees a rising demand for large aircraft operationg between hubs, supported by feeder aircraft. The visible manifestation of this difference of opinion can be seen in the type of aircraft built by the rivals, Airbus favouring the Larger super jumbo, the A380, and Boeing the economies of the 7E7

  "The progression from a regulated to liberalised market has increased competition among airlines and is forcing them to operate at much higher levels of efficiency to remain profitable," said Randy Baseler, Boeing Commercial Airplanes' vice president - Marketing. "Passenger preference for more frequent, nonstop flights with shorter trip times will continue to drive market evolution and airline strategies. After all, air travel is all about passenger convenience and saving time."

  Baseler pointed out that when flying to Paris in 1980 from a city more than 5,000 kilometres away, there were few choices of direct non-stop service. Multiple connections may have been required to complete the journey. Today, there are almost two and a half more non-stop markets and four and a half more scheduled flights, with a slight decrease in aircraft size.

  "This is a typical example of market fragmentation," Baseler said. "Air travel growth is being met by more non-stops and frequencies rather than an increase in aircraft size."

  Increasing pressure on airlines to become more efficient led Boeing to enter the aviation support services market.

  "Boeing offers unmatched global support and aviation services to the industry so our customers are free to focus on their core business," Baseler said. "We believe Boeing is uniquely positioned and prepared to bring this kind of value to our customers, and we see this as a tremendous opportunity to help build a safe and efficient global air-transportation system."

  REF XQQAS XQQEE XQQCR