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$500 million UAV EO sensor market by end of decade
By FY04, US Department of Defense (DoD) UAV spending will have tripled from about $360 million in FY01. An increasing percentage of this is being spent on sensor systems, especially electro-optics used for persistent surveillance and reconnaissance from endurance UAVs. For example, recent changes to the US Air Force's RQ-1 Predator sensor suite have resulted in Raytheon's AN/AAS-52 Multispectral Targeting System (MTS) now costing half the total Predator fly-away cost. Full-rate production MTS unit cost was hoped for at about $1.5 million, but early systems cost $2.2 million, which has raised air vehicle cost from $2.5 million to more than $4.5 million. According to Teal's report, Global Hawk, only just cleared for Limited Rate Initial Production (LRIP), continues to dominate spending. The seventh Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD) air vehicle was delivered in February, LRIP covers 19 more, and the USAF plans to procure at least 51 in total. Raytheon's 400 kg Global Hawk Integrated Sensor Suite (ISS), which cost about $12 million in mid-2002, will probably be procured for all USAF Global Hawks until the new Multi-Platform Radar Technology Insertion (MP-RTIP) sensor suite is ready, which is not likely before the end of the decade. The US Navy also bought two Global Hawks in FY03, to be tested for the Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS) program, and the Navy could eventually buy up to 50. Australia is the first likely foreign customer for Global Hawk, and is considering funding additional Global Hawk sensor development, especially for a BAMS-type naval Global Hawk. The single Global Hawk operational in Iraq in 2003 flew only 3% of all aircraft imagery-collection sorties and only 5% of high-altitude missions, but collected data on 55% of all air defense-related time-sensitive targets. By comparison, the Air Force's U-2, which provided 80% of total imagery during Operation Allied Force in Kosovo, was used in Iraq more for its SIGINT (signals intelligence) and multi-spectral capabilities. Plans for Global Hawk SIGINT and hyper-spectral sensors will further erode the U-2's importance. Tactical UAVs will see much lower funding levels. According to Dr. David Rockwell, Teal Group's Senior Analyst for electronics, "for tactical UAVs, neither the numbers nor the funding are there. Several rotary and fixed-wing programmes are in development, but few have definite production plans. And none of them plan for the thousands of air vehicles which would be required to make a $200,000 sensor a major programme on the level of endurance UAV sensors. Even 100 of these tactical sensors only adds up to $20 million." According to the Teal, the only other programmes likely to come close to endurance UAV funding are UCAVs (Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles). An analysis of current and planned programmes show combined markets of as much as $100 million by 2011, "still much lower than many optimists would like to believe," comments Rockwell. The Market Overview also forecasts technology advancements. Streaming video to High Definition Television (HDTV) standard, combined with a real-time precision-targeting capability and automated precision geolocation, are top goals. Better image resolution is needed, but even more important is improved software and systems for discriminating smaller, camouflaged targets. As more UAVs gain laser targeting designators, automatic target recognition (ATR) will become vital. Along with improved data links, ATR and "smarter sensors" will be the next sensor breakthrough. Multi- and hyper-spectral cameras, and foliage-penetrating (FOPEN) radars, will provide better target discrimination, but will remain expensive with limited applications.
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Highlights of Teal Group's UAV Electro- Optic/Infrared (EO/IR) Sensor Market Overview released at the Paris Air Show today forecasts the UAV market will double in the next few years, to almost $500 million annually by 2010. Today, Global Hawk RDT&E and procurement captures nearly half the market, but this percentage will decrease as Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAV) and other programmes come on line.