Personal jets to help drive growth in bizjet market

Currently, the business jet market is suffering through a difficult time. Annual business jet production declined for the second year in a row in 2002. Order activity has dwindled, and several manufacturers have slashed production rates.

Amidst the gloom, however, signs do exist that can justify a sense of cautious optimism. Some of these include increasing dissatisfaction with airline travel and continuing growth (even during the present downturn) in fractional programmes. One factor working in the industry's favor is that the public perception of business jets has changed in the past few years.

Forecast International/DMS has issued a new study titled 'The World Market for Business Jet Aircraft,' in which the market research firm forecasts that 9,769 business jets, worth $134.5 billion, will be produced between 2003 and 2012.

"Private jets are no longer viewed exclusively as toys for wealthy individuals or as perks for high-level corporate executives," said Raymond Jaworowski, a senior aerospace analyst at Forecast International. "Business jets are now generally viewed by the public as legitimate business tools used to enhance employee productivity. "This current perception has improved the marketability of business jets among corporations that are concerned about their image with shareholders or the general public.

Forecast International predicts that 574 business jets will be produced in 2003, which would mark a second consecutive year of decline in business jet production. However, the company projects that production will increase to 603 units in 2004 and 743 units in 2005, and continue increasing through most of the remainder of the 10-year forecast period.

One of the most dynamic segments in the bizjet market is expected to be the entry-level segment, which generally consists of the smallest business jets that are on the market. These include such aircraft as the Cessna CitationJet CJ1/2/3, the Raytheon Beechcraft Premier I, and the Sino Swearingen SJ30-2. In addition, Forecast International also includes in this class new personal jets such as the Cessna Mustang and the Eclipse 500. These last two aircraft are expected to provide much of the growth in the entry-level category during the next 10 years. They could expand the scope of the current market by drawing in many air taxi services that do not now fly business jet types.

Overall, Cessna is expected to be the market leader in unit production during the 2003-2012 forecast period, with production of 3,101 bizjets, representing a market share of 31.7%. Cessna will be followed by Bombardier (1,732 aircraft; 17.7%), Eclipse Aviation (1,376; 14.1%), and Gulfstream (1,171; 12.0%).

When the market is measured in US dollars, Gulfstream is expected to take the lead spot, with production worth $36.6 billion, a 27.2% market share. The Savannah-based company will be followed by Bombardier ($29. 9 billion; 22.2%), Cessna ($21. 9 billion; 16.3%), and Dassault ($20. 8 billion; 15.5%).

Forecast International/DMS Inc, is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.

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