Impact of Kosovo for defence planners

June 14th, 1999

Forecast International has released a new report, "Impact of the Kosovo Crisis for NATO Defence Planners" at the Paris Air ShowThe report examines in detail the probable long-term effect of the conflict in terms of changing national defence policies and postures, and the resulting impact upon procurement issues.

The most significant shortcoming identified was the reluctance of the US to commit its Apache helicopter gunship because of the threat from man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS). Their vulnerability in peace support operations where there is no front line and no safe area raises serious questions about the role of gunships in such scenarios. This will impact upon future procurement decisions of similar aircraft, in particular where the US Army looks to the RAH-66 Comanche. The report also looks at the need to develop greatly enhanced electro optical systems for precise targeting by attacking aircraft. Forced to fight a 15,000 foot war because of AA defences, NATO's aircraft could not always distinguish a tank from a tractor. The area of electro-optics to assume new importance in future defence planning.

Unmanned Vehicles, for years unheralded and the first items to be cut in budget squeezes, performed very well, and are seen as one of the war's success stories. Forecast Analysts say that the day of the Unmanned Vehicle as an integral component of the combat inventory has arrived.

Support aircraft were essential to the successful prosecution of the air campaign with intelligence gathering aircraft working overtime. It will speed discussion within NATO for options to enhance the US Joint STARS aircraft, either by buying that system to enhance the more than 15 aircraft for which the US has so far budgeted, or by taking the UK route and developing the system that wins the ASTOR competition.

Tankers played a major role, but the ageing nature of the NATO air refuelling fleet was high lighted. The US Air Force appears to favour a Boeing follow on to the KC-135 fleet while the European NATO members appear to favour an Airbus derivative.

In the key area of logistics NATO is found wanting in terms of both air and sea lift, critical areas which must be addressed in depth.

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